畜牧业“碳排放”到“碳足迹”核算方法的研究进展

全球变暖趋势日益加剧,不仅影响农业可持续发展,而且威胁到人类生存。畜牧业碳排放因其在农业碳排放中乃至全球碳排放中占比较大而日益备受关注。准确核算畜牧业碳排放是制定切实可行的碳减排政策的前提,也为我国在气候变化下承担共同但有差别的减排责任提供话语权。本文基于研究范式的演进,对畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹核算方法的研究发展进行了系统梳理,研究表明,在学者的不断研究与质疑下,畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹的核算方法经历了从OECD核算法、IPCC系数法到生命周期法与投入-产出法的演变与完善,学术界认为区域异质性、养殖规模与管理方式均影响碳足迹;散养比规模化养殖产生更多的碳排放,舍饲比户外放牧排放更多的碳。畜牧业碳足迹核算能够更加全面地反映畜牧业全生命周期的碳排放情况,但由于研究假设、研究方法及研究样本等差异导致不同区域、不同畜产品的碳排放核算结果存在不确定性。运用生命周期法和投入-产出法对欧盟成员国畜牧业碳排放的核算结果基本一致,但运用IPCC系数法和全生命周期法对中国畜牧业碳排放核算中,牛、猪和羊的碳排放量排序结果不尽一致。鉴于核算结果的差异性,本研究对不同核算方法的起源、最早采用时间、特点、局限性等方面进行了归纳总结,并建议后续研究探讨基于生命周期评价的畜牧业碳足迹研究边界的延伸性,标准化畜牧业碳排放或碳足迹核算,避免学者重复核算畜牧业碳排放,以便深入展开畜牧业碳排放其他方面的研究。     

Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation.     

生态围隔对水源地水质的改善效果

采用渔网及土工布挂片双层材料以及填充的水花生构建了生态围隔,对藻类进行拦截,降低取水口藻类密度,同时通过水花生的吸收和拦截,以及土工布挂片形成的附着生物群落的降解和吸收作用,降低颗粒态以及溶解态营养盐,达到取水口水质的改善效果.生态工程实施后,取水口内悬浮颗粒物显著降低了29.8％,同时透明度提高了27.5％.对藻类的拦截效果研究表明,围隔对叶绿素a的去除率为23.0％,对总藻类数量的去除率为20.7％.通过对围隔内外蓝藻数量在藻类数量的比例分析,生态围隔对蓝藻的去除率高于总藻类的去除率,说明了对于藻类拦截的效果具有一定的选择性.对营养盐的改善效果主要体现在颗粒态物质上,其中颗粒态氮磷的去除率分别为48.4％和31.3％.     

生态补水对玄武湖水质的影响

分析南京玄武湖1997年-2010年的水质变化，以及生态补水与玄武湖水质变化的关系。结果表明，玄武湖于1998年实施生态补水，随着生态补水的持续运行和生态补水量的不断增加，玄武湖水质得以显著改善，其水质类别由生态补水前的劣V类水体转为V类水体，并接近于Ⅳ类水体，富营养化程度由重度富营养化水平转为轻度富营养化水平。目前玄武湖主要营养物质来源于生态补水，相关性分析显示各湖区TN浓度与生态补水中TN浓度呈显著相关关系。     

中国能源生态足迹的时空动态特征及效应分析

运用生态足迹方法计算出1990—2007年中国能源消费的生态足迹。在此基础上,分析了能源足迹强度(EFI)、能源足迹生态压力(EPIEF)的时空动态变化特征。结果表明,近20年来我国能源足迹波动上升,能源消费结构有所改善,但煤炭足迹仍占主导,近几年又有回升趋势;能源足迹强度呈幂指数衰减,能源利用效率不断提高;EPIEF呈上升趋势,说明能源利用对自然生态系统的压力逐渐增大。在空间分布上,各省区能源足迹差异显著,能源足迹强度由西向东逐渐降低,而EPIEF则由西向东呈增大趋势。依据EPIEF指数将中国30个省区划分为能源足迹生态盈余区(EPIEF1)、生态轻度亏损区(1EPIEF5)和生态严重亏损区(EPIEF5)3种类型。     

Inferring chemical effects on carbon flows in aquatic food webs: Methodology and case study

The majority of ecotoxicological enclosure experiments monitor species abundances at different chemical concentrations. Here, we present a new modelling approach that estimates changes in food web flows from such data and show that population- and food web level effects are revealed that are not apparent from abundance data alone. For the case of cypermethrin in freshwater enclosures, photosynthesis and excretion (d⁻¹) of phytoplankton at 3.643 μg L⁻¹ cypermethrin were 30% lower and 100% higher than in the control, respectively. The ingestion rate of mesozooplankton (d⁻¹) was 6 times higher in the treated enclosures than in the control as food concentration increased with insecticide exposure. With increasing cypermethrin concentrations, nanoflagellates progressively relied on phytoplankton as their main food source, which rendered the food web less stable. We conclude that this tool has excellent potential to analyse the wealth of enclosure data as it only needs species abundance and general constraints.     

Beyond selectivity: Are behavioral avoidance and hormesis likely causes of pyrethroid-induced outbreaks of the southern red mite Oligonychus ilicis?

Secondary pest outbreak is a counterintuitive ecological backlash of pesticide use in agriculture that takes place with the increase in abundance of a non-targeted pest species after pesticide application against a targeted pest species. Although the phenomenon was well recognized, its alternative causes are seldom considered. Outbreaks of the southern red mite Oligonychus ilicis are frequently reported in Brazilian coffee farms after the application of pyrethroid insecticides against the coffee leaf miner Leucoptera coffeella. Selectivity favoring the red mite against its main predatory mites is generally assumed as the outbreak cause, but this theory has never been tested. Here, we assessed the toxicity (and thus the selectivity) of deltamethrin against both mite species: the southern red mite and its phytoseid predator Amblyseius herbicolus. Additionally, behavioral avoidance and deltamethrin-induced hormesis were also tested as potential causes of red mite outbreak using free-choice behavioral walking bioassays with the predatory mite and life-table experiments with both mite species, respectively. Lethal toxicity bioassays indicated that the predatory mite was slightly more susceptible than its prey (1.5×), but in more robust demographic bioassays, the predator was three times more tolerant to deltamethrin than its prey, indicating that predator susceptibility to deltamethrin is not a cause of the reported outbreaks. The predator did not exhibit behavioral avoidance to deltamethrin; however insecticide-induced hormesis in the red mite led to its high population increase under low doses, which was not observed for the predatory mite. Therefore, deltamethrin-induced hormesis is a likely cause of the reported red mite outbreaks.     

Species distribution modelling—Effect of design and sample size of pseudo-absence observations

We explored the effect of varying pseudo-absence data in species distribution modelling using empirical data for four real species and simulated data for two imaginary species. In all analyses we used a fixed study area, a fixed set of environmental predictors and a fixed set of presence observations. Next, we added pseudo-absence data generated by different sampling designs and in different numbers to assess their relative importance for the output from the species distribution model. The sampling design strongly influenced the predictive performance of the models while the number of pseudo-absences had minimal effect on the predictive performance. We attribute much of these results to the relationship between the environmental range of the pseudo-absences (i.e. the extent of the environmental space being considered) and the environmental range of the presence observations (i.e. under which environmental conditions the species occurs). The number of generated pseudo-absences had a direct effect on the predicted probability, which translated to different distribution areas. Pseudo-absence observations that fell within grid cells with presence observations were purposely included in our analyses. We discourage the practice of excluding certain pseudo-absence data because it involves arbitrary assumptions about what are (un)suitable environments for the species being modelled.     

Economic sustainability and the preservation of environmental assets

The core requirement of sustainability is that current economic activities should not result in an excessive burden on future generations. This criterion is general enough to imply different decision rules for the preservation of environmental assets. Neoclassical economics does not have a sustainability criterion for environmental assets independent of the intertemporal efficiency criterion, which allocates environmental and man-made capital based on projected monetary benefits and costs. This criterion is examined in terms of the feasibility of valuing the benefits of environmental assets, the substitution possibilities between natural and man-made capital, and the ethical grounds for using efficiency as the sole determinant of the allocation of environmental assets. An alternative ecological sustainability criterion is the preservation of safe minimum levels of environmental assets in physical terms rather than the dollar value of a composite of natural and man-made capital. Safe minimum standards for environmental assets constrain the efficiency criterion in order to ensure the sustainability of economic systems. It is argued that the ecological approach to sustainability should limit the economic approach for decisions involving the allocation of environmental assets.     

中国生态农业与绿色食品

本文从农业环境问题和食品安全性出发，阐述了中国生态农业的兴起及特点，绿色食品生产的要求，生态农业与绿色食品的关系。介绍了几种可用于开发绿色食品的优化生态模式。